A Report on the Confidence Interval Analysis on Popularity of Elections

Scenario

The scenario that I would consider would be in an electioneering period, to determine the popularity of presidential elections within a given county as well as understanding the existing difference between the presidential candidates. This will also include focus on the underlying region under which the election might be lost or won through understanding the existing difference between the presidential candidates within the county What is your estimate of the population size?

The estimate of the population size will focus on the existing citizens who are eligible to vote within the county since they have direct influence under which they will have a clear focus and understanding under which it would be possible [0 have an influence on the results in the presidential elections (Sedgwick, 2012), What sample size will you use? Why?

The sample size that would be included in this case would be 25% of the total population size, This is because it would be able to provide a clear understanding under which it would be easier to develop a greater representation of data that would be crucial in understanding what the people are thinking regarding the best candidate, The focus on 25% of the total population size represents a greater focus and understanding on best estimate that will provide a better prediction of the eventual findings (Bella etal.

, 2005). How will you gather information for your sample?

Describe your process, The data collection in this case will be collected through focus on survey that will be conducted in a random manner through focus on the inclusion strategy where all the respondentswho will be considered will be registered voters, The survey approach is much easier and cost effectively since more people can be accessed and provide their honest opinion regarding the best presidential candidate and the existing difference between the frontrunners, What confidence percentage will you use? Why?

In order to find the most accurate results bet on confidence interval model, I will use 99% confidence interval where the only error that is considered in this case is 1% that means that the confidence interval that will be considered will be highly accurate A significantly lower percentage of error will create a key focus under which it would be easier to make prediction on whose is likely to be elected (Bella etal.

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, 2005). Results The confidence interval analysis was conducted where it was identified that at 99% confidence level, the leading candidate would score between 49 and 57% where 49% is the lower limit while 57% is the upper limit.

References

1. Bella, 8., Fidler, F., Williams, Jr, & Cumming, G. (2005). Researchers misunderstand confidence intervals and standard error bars. Psychological Methods, 10(4), 3897396 https://doiorg/10.1037/1082—989X.10.4.389
2. Sedgwick, P, (2012), Confidence intervals: Predicting uncertainty, BM} (Online), 344(7856) hupsz/ldoiorg/IO.1136/bmj.e3147