The Connection Between the Events of 2001 and 2003

History

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has been known by many names. ISIL, ISI, and the current iteration is ISIS. The group currently known as ISIS (ISIL) found its origin story from the rubble of the Al-Qaeda group of Iraq (AQI). This genesis of ISIS stemmed from a post 9/11 invasion of Iraq carried out by the United States in 2003 (Britannica, 2018). The goal of the US intervention in Iraq was to remove from power, Sadaam Hussein, and to institute a new government that would provide more democracy to the region.

After the withdrawal of the US forces in Iraq a temporary government was put in place, weak and fledgling, this government was seen as an easy target for Al-Qaeda and other insurgent groups to seize control. Al-Qaeda (also known as AQI) flourished in this transitory phase of Iraq’s lack of governmental stability, and soon AQI would merge with Sadaam’s Baathist party, which laid the ground works to what would eventually be called ISIS (Islamic Networks Group, 2018).

The other catalyst, besides Iraq regime change that fueled the growth of ISIS was the Arab Spring movement of 2010-2013 in which there was a growing dissent in the civilian population, and demands of more democratic processes and political inclusion. The center of this all, that is to say, the “hot bed” of political unrest was seen in Syria, in which the President imposed a violent and bloody crackdown on protestors, dissenters and the media. The violent actions taken by Asaad, would form another nucleus of militant rebel groups in which started a civil war in Syria.

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We have seen the opportunistic behavior of Al-Qaeda exploiting power vacuums in Iraq, now too does an opportunity present itself in Syria. The AQI and Baathist groups, by this point calling themselves ISIS, move into the politically unstable region of Syria in an attempt to join forces with Syrian rebel groups to overthrow the Asaad government. The main stronghold for ISIS in this point of time is Iraq. From Iraq, ISIS is able to send forces into Syria to contribute violence and unrest, which, ISIS was able to do with extreme brutality. It was the case that ISIS was indeed so brutal that Al-Qaeda’s original core began to distance themselves from ISIS, eventually in 2014, withdraws their partnership with ISIS entirely (Washington Post, 2018). Losing core support from Al-Qaeda branches, ISIS becomes fragmented and a non-monolithic group, creating a vast network of satellite cells all throughout the Middle-East and Africa. ISIS went from a single headed serpent, to a multi-headed hydra-like network.

Leadership Hierarchy

ISIS itself was formed from other insurgent groups, with their own discreet leadership and organization. Because of ISIS overlap with these other groups, so too is there overlap in leadership and ideology.

The leadership of ISIS and Al-Qaeda came from militants that were fighting against a Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Soviet forces were largely secular and anti-Islam. The Soviets committed large amounts of atrocities against the Afghan population. It was in these early resistance groups that a Saudi, Osama Bin Laden got his first taste of leadership of the Mujahedeen (Britannica, 2018) and amassed great popularity, as well as establishing himself as a warrior against secular nations. Osama Bin Laden would become the future leader of Al-Qaeda, while another fighter in the Mujahedeen would become the de-facto leader of ISIS, Abu Masub Al-Zarqawi. After the Soviet withdrawal of Afghanistan, Bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia to continue his extremist works, while Zarqawi returns to Jordan.

The 9/11 attacks that inspired the invasion of Iraq, also prompted the use of drone strikes on suspected terrorists, and created a new dynamic for these leaders. After the US withdrawal in Iraq, Bin Laden and Zarqawi in Iraq use this time to attack Shiaa groups, and eventually joining up to form Al-Qaeda of Iraq (AQI). The drone strike program would see a successful elimination of a terrorist leader. Zarqawi was killed in 2007 by a drone strike (ING, 2018). While Osama Bin Laden was forced to go into hiding, a new leader stepped up to take AQI leadership, Abu Bakr. Abu Bakr renamed the group ‘Islamic State of Iraq’ and he was able to raid prisons and grow his troop size immensely in these largely vacuous conditions, while simultaneous seizing control over the Al-Qaeda group in Syria, and the merger of both AQI or ISI, and Al-Qaeda Syrian groups now became ISIS.

Although the leader of Al-Qaeda Syria (Al-Nursa) tried to reject Bakr’s power grab, eventually, the two groups would become one. Today the ISIS organization is ran and maintained by Abu Bakr Al-Bagdadi. Bakr had largely gone underground, and been in hiding for so long that speculation propagated that he was probably killed. However, a recording surfaced of Bakr in an audio statement that was released in late 2018 (Rabil, 2018).

Goals

The goals of Al-Qaeda and indeed ISIS are interesting from a global perspective. In the Jihadist movement, there are very locally focused groups, such as the Taliban, in which the goals remain confided to the current state in which they reside, by focusing on political reformation and creating a proper Islamic Caliphate. ISIS seems to have a more global awareness and terror strategy than does other Jihadist groups. ISIS seems to have domination plans to create a multi-state, anti-west Islamic caliphate.

The goal of ISIS is to seize control of as much territory as possible to impose a religious theocratic caliphate. It is unclear however if the goals of ISIS are confided to such a scenario, and that terror operations will cease once achieved. It could be the case, that upon successful campaigns, that ISIS remains spread, even after achieving a territorial caliphate, until external pressures halt the progress or destroy it entirely. Jihadist groups all have very different political and religious aims, and to understand the nuances of each, you must examine them individually. One thing is clear, is that the barbarism displayed by ISIS has received condemnations from other Jihadist groups, making it clear that ISIS is not compatible with peaceful operations.

Capabilities

ISIS has been shown to have certain affection for both lone-wolf style terror attacks (e.g. suicide bombings) and also open war by armed militia. Fueled by free prisoners, and the attraction of new adherents to their philosophies, ISIS was able to attack governments of both Iraq and Syria concurrently, while controlling large portions of Iraq and Syria. Militant armies pose a threat to Middle-Eastern governments, tourists, and American Embassies.

Currently the non-monolithic nature of ISIS, and the scattering of ISIS cells across the Middle-East and Africa, makes the use of suicide lone-wolf attacks more attractive. ISIS receives willing adherents and potential suicide bombers from all around the globe. Lone-wolf attacks such as the ones on September 11th, as well as the Boston Marathon, and UK subway bombings can inflict massive casualties and help promote and attract adherents that condone that sort of terrorism. Lone-wolf attacks are especially useful against larger, stronger governments. ISIS cannot openly attack powerful nation states with monolithic armies or militias, so the use of suicide bombings turn out to be the most effective political weapon, creating chaos, death and effective PR for ISIS and other terrorist groups. Given that the ISIS leadership is slowly being withered down, lone-wolf attacks will become (practically speaking) to the only weapon of ISIS. Obtaining a higher tech weapon or chemical weapon however remains a potential threat.

In 2014, it was suspected that ISIS obtained stolen Uranium to craft with it a dirty bomb. The amount of Uranium needed for a dirty bomb is 90 pounds or more (House, 2016). However, the amount of sophistication needed to take Uranium, handle it effectively, and create potential nuclear devices far exceeds the current capabilities of ISIS, however the threat of a dirty bomb, as mentioned before, does exist. Exacerbating the problem of dirty bombs is the dual-use materials that are needed. Most advanced states utilize and develop materials for research, medical, and health sciences that could also be used for creating weapons. It is often a difficult case in tracking these materials, and inferring with any amount of confidence what the materials will be used for and where the materials will end up.

Funding

Prior to 2014, a large contribution of financial assets to ISIS was the control of oil. Alongside oil fields, the seizure of land, property, bank robbery, kidnapping and extortion are the key financial vehicles for ISIS. According to Robert Tait (2018) ISIS was able to heist about $500,000,000 from the Mosul Central Bank. Since 2014 however, thanks to weakening stranglehold on oil rich territories, oil became a smaller financial tool ISIS could exploit, instead ISIS would turn to extortion, coercion and kidnapping. Territories controlled by ISIS would often receive tax levies against them, and civilians would be ordered to pay taxes or risk loss of life, property, or a kidnapped family member. Intelligence reports claimed that ISIS collected around $800,000,000 per year due to these tax levies on civilians and farmers. Taxation is the chief source of funds currently supporting ISIS, passing oil and kidnappings (Quartz, 2018).

Kidnapping and extortion plague the ISIS inhabited regions as well. Targets of easy acquisition that ISIS tends to go after are tourists, children, press reporters, humanitarian workers, and European and American civilians. ISIS will kidnap torture or murder civilians unless a ransom is paid by the family, organization, or state. These ransoms can be anywhere from $70,000 to $130,000 – as such as the James Foley kidnapping (Cbs News, 2018).

Conclusion

ISIS, while once a more monolithic entity, has been relegated to a scattered network of multination terrorist cells. These cells, while lacking monolithic army militias, are still capable of attacks on friendly targets all throughout the Middle-East and Africa. Indeed, even without large armies, ISIS is able to make use of lone-wolf attacks that can target specifically embassies, government houses, military installations, or civilian points of interest. Successful suicide attacks are the main source of ISIS propaganda and ways of reaching potential recruits to join the cause. While ISIS leadership has been largely decimated by the US drone programs, the use of lone-wolf attacks will continue to continue until the organization is destroyed or disbanded.

The intelligence community should increase communication between all branches of military and civilian intelligence agencies to ensure a clear picture is painted of the remnants of ISIS’ communication network and capabilities. The UN and NATO should be more involved in intervening (based on international consensus) in alleviating conditions that are conducive to creating extremists. These conditions include (but not limited to): political unrest, humanitarian crisis, lack of government stability, civilian casualties brought by allied drone striking programs. If the United States and its allies can mitigate the conditions that create extremism, while reducing the amount of lone-wolf attacks, and continue reducing ISIS leadership, the terrorist group, without any new input, should give way to entropy.

Works Cited

1. Britannica. (2018). Iraq War | Summary, Causes, Combatants, & Facts. [online] Available at: https://www.britannica.com/event/Iraq-War [Accessed 27 Dec. 2018]
2. Islamic Networks Group (ING). (2018). An Overview of ISIS – Islamic Networks Group (ING). [online] Available at: https://ing.org/an-overview-of-isis/ [Accessed 27 Dec. 2018].
3. Washington Post (2018). [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/al-qaeda- disavows-any-ties-with-radical-islamist-isis-group-in-syria-iraq/2014/02/03/2c9afc3a-8cef- 11e3-98ab-fe5228217bd1_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3ce23e5d1312 [Accessed 27 Dec. 2018].
4. Encyclopedia Britannica. (2018). Soviet invasion of Afghanistan | Summary & Facts. [online] Available at: https://www.britannica.com/event/Soviet-invasion-of-Afghanistan [Accessed 27 Dec. 2018].
5. Networks Group (ING). (2018). An Overview of ISIS – Islamic Networks Group (ING). [online] Available at: https://ing.org/an-overview-of-isis/ [Accessed 27 Dec. 2018].
6. Rabil, Robert G. (1 September 2018). ‘ISIS Isn’t Dead Yet’. The National Interest. Retrieved 20 October 2018.
7. House, Carole N. 2016. The Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Terrorism Threat from the Islamic State. Military Review 96 (5): 68-75
8. Tait, Robert. 2018. ‘ISIS’ Half-A-Billion-Dollar Bank Heist Makes It World’s Richest Terror Group’. Telegraph.Co.Uk. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10899995/ISIS-half-a-billion- dollar-bank-heist-makes-it-worlds-richest-terror-group.html.
9. ‘ISIS Made More Money Taxing Farms Than Stealing Oil Or Kidnapping People’. 2018. Quartz. https://qz.com/1245672/new-documents-show-isis-made-more-money-taxing-farms-than- stealing-oil-or-kidnapping-people/.
10. Multiple Kidnappings For Ransom’ Funding ISIS, Source Says’. 2018. Cbsnews.Com. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/multiple-kidnappings-for-ransom-funding-isis-source-says