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Conditions of Behavioural Changes Towards Efficient Energy Use

Conditions of behavioural changes towards efficient energy use – a comparative study between Sweden and the UK Abstract The main objective of this study is to compare how specific conditions in certain countries (in this case, the UK and Sweden) can stimulate or attempt to compel householders to be more energy efficient, or can obstruct…

Innovation in Low-Energy Home Renovation

Innovation in low-energy home renovation in the UK and France Abstract In both France and the UK, low-energy renovation of housing is an important part of wider climate change mitigation strategy. Policy directed at householders and building professionals aims to increase the number and ambition of low-energy renovations. However, persistent problems exist for delivering genuine…

Water Availability in +2°C and +4°C Worlds

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2◦C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5◦C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts…

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The Future of the Amazon

The future of the Amazon: new perspectives from climate, ecosystem and social sciences The potential loss or large-scale degradation of the tropical rainforests has become one of the iconic images of the impacts of twenty-first century environmental change and may be one of our century’s most profound legacies. In the Amazon region, the direct threat…

Questions of Importance to the Conservation of Biological Diversity

Abstract: Paleoecological records are replete with examples of biotic responses to past climate change and human impact, but how can we use these records in the conservation of current and future biodiversity? A recently published list of (One Hundred Questions of Importance to the Conservation of Global Biological Diversity) (Sutherland et al., 2009) highlights a…

Rainfall, Deforestation and Fires in the Brazilian Amazonia

Interactions Between Rainfall, Deforestation and Fires During Recent Years in the Brazilian Amazonia Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal…

Forecasting Extinctions: Uncertainties and Limitations

Abstract: Extinction forecasting is one of the most important and challenging areas of conservation biology. Overestimates of extinction rates or the extinction risk of a particular species instigate accusations of hype and overblown conservation rhetoric. Conversely, underestimates may result in limited resources being allocated to other species/habitats perceived as being at greater risk. In this…

Towards Quantifying Uncertainty in Predictions of Amazon ‘Dieback’

1. Inrtroduction When forced by a ‘business-as-usual’ (IS92a) emissions scenario, a version of the Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) (Gordon et al. 2000) extended to model the global carbon cycle (including a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM)) predicts that climate change could cause a major loss of the Amazon rainforest (Cox et al. 2000)….

Environmental Policy-Making Networks and the Future of the Amazon

1. Introduction The rate at which Amazon forests are destroyed is the result of many factors, including economic trends and incentives, population migration and growth, urbanization, property rights and enforcement of environmental laws. Several of these are the direct result of a complex and pitched struggle over the formation and implementation of land- and resource-use…

Sources of Uncertainties in Modelling Black Carbon at the Global Scale

Introduction Black carbon (BC) is a product of incomplete combustion of carbonaceous matter (fossil fuel, biomass and biofuels) that has an impact on both air quality and climate. Atmospheric particles affect the climate both directly by intercepting incoming solar radiation and scattering a portion back to space and absorbing a fraction, heating the local atmosphere…

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